A treuthe be known oonli bi probabilness and likelihode, and not sureli. - Reginald Pecock, 1449

instructor

Instructor Peter Ohring
Office Natural Sciences 3002 Tel. x6678
Office Hours Mon., Wed., Fri. 10-11, Tue 4:30-6
Texts
Text Probability, an Introduction with Statistical Applications by John Kinney, John Wiley and Sons, 1997
Course Description
The scientific study of a physical phenomenon is often accompanied by a mathematical model. The model is said to be deterministic if carrying out repeated experiments under ideal conditions leads to essentially the same outcomes which are predicted by the model. Frequently this is not realistic; there may be unknown or uncontrolled variables, such as air pressure or humidity, that might affect the outcome, as well as measurement error. There are other types of phenomena in which different results naturally occur by chance, and for which a deterministic model would not be appropriate. Examples of this crop up in radioactive decay , genetics, gambling, digital image processing and sports. The motivation for the study of probability is to provide mathematical models for such nondeterministic situations. Probability theory involves the infrastructure required for producing such probabilistic models. Statistics, on the other hand,  is the science of analyzing experimental data. This analysis is based on probabilistic models of the underlying phenomena.
Syllabus

We will cover the first four chapters in Kinney's text. We will cover some of the the chapters only partially.

 

1.       To become familiar with the basic concepts of modern Probablity theory, as well as some applications.

2.       To develop problem solving skills.

3.       To learn how apply probabilistic models to analyze experimental data.

There will be three class meetings per week.  These will be a mix of lectures, discussions, and other activities (?!?). At times we will break into small groups for collaborative work.  People learn more working in teams, and cooperative efforts present a more realistic model of the working world than individuals operating in isolation. Attendance at all classes is required.

There will be a strong emphasis on reading the text; we will not cover all the material in class.  The classes will include clarification of important points made in the text. One way to promote in-class discussion is to write a question on the board before class.

A truth is never truly assimilated except insofar as it has first been reconstituted or rediscovered by some activity. - Jean Piaget

A mix of exercises will be assigned regularly throughout the semester.  While consultation between students on these assignments is encouraged, the write-ups of the assignments are to be done individually.

Late homework will not be accepted except under extenuating circumstances. 

The beginner ... should not be discouraged if ... he finds that he does not have the prerequisites for reading the prerequisites - Paul Halmos

There will a  mid-term  and a final.  The final course grade will be determined by the exams, homework, and class participation with the exams making up about 60% of the grade.